Wood Mackenzie最新报告显示，到2025年印度光伏组件制造能力将超过125GW，为当前国内市场需求规模（约40GW）的三倍以上。
报告指出，这将导致库存快速累积。预计2025年第三季度库存规模将达到29GW，而2023年底和2024年底分别为13GW和22GW。
Wood Mackenzie称，印度产能激增得益于生产挂钩激励（PLI）政策，但此时印度光伏对美国市场的出口正大幅下滑。在美印之间50%的互征关税影响下，印度对美组件出口在2025年上半年同比下降52%。
Wood Mackenzie太阳能供应链研究主管雅娜·赫里什科表示，印度正在出现类似中国市场价格崩溃前的过剩信号。
报告显示，印度组件制造仍存在明显成本劣势：
- 使用进口电池片的印度组装组件，成本比整机进口中国组件高至少0.03美元/瓦
- 按国内含量要求完全在印度生产的组件，成本将超过中国组件的两倍
尽管面临短期压力，报告认为印度仍是最有潜力成为“中国之外唯一具备大规模完整光伏制造能力的国家”的市场。
赫里什科表示，要实现长期竞争力，印度需从“扩张产能”转向“降低成本与技术升级”，包括加大研发投入、发展下一代电池技术，并开拓非美新出口市场，例如非洲、拉美和欧洲。
截至今年上半年，印度PLI计划下已形成：
- 18.5GW组件产能
- 9.7GW电池片产能
- 2.2GW硅锭-硅片产能 政府累计授予组件制造产能达到48GW。
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