墨西哥能源部(Sener)发布了《国家电力系统发展规划》(Prosener 2025-30),将可再生能源和储能列为强化电力系统的优先方向。该规划预计新增发电容量在6,400MW至9,550MW之间,其中96%来自太阳能和风能,并预计到2030年清洁能源发电将占总发电量的38%。
Prosener提出,公共投资将与私人资本在发电和储能领域合作推进,同时配套实施提升能效、推动技术创新和电气化的措施。该规划还强调通过储能和备用系统提升电网灵活性,以应对可再生能源间歇性输出的问题。
该战略保留天然气作为系统平衡的能源,并建议扩大和现代化天然气运输和分销网络,以确保为电厂和工业提供稳定供应。墨西哥国家石油公司(Pemex)将继续维持炼油业务,旨在减少燃料进口并提升炼厂效率。
根据规划,电力市场仍维持混合模式,国有电力公司CFE将至少供应54%的电网电力,私人发电商提供剩余部分。CFE报告称,2024年分布式太阳能装机增加1.09GW,年末达到4.42GW。
分析人士预计增长将超过Sener的基线预测。SolarPower Europe与全球太阳能理事会在8月联合发布的报告估算,墨西哥到2028年太阳能装机可达15.2GW,2029年达17GW;咨询机构Ember则指出,如配套30GWh电池,36GW太阳能装机可使可再生能源占比在2030年提升至45%。
Prosener还规划发展水电、地热和生物质发电,以实现能源结构多元化。该计划包括优化水电设施容量、扩展地热项目、以及推动农业和工业废弃物用于能源生产的措施。
作者:LUIS INI
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