GlobalData表示,到2035年,孟加拉国光伏装机容量预计将从2025年的约1.3吉瓦增至约8.5吉瓦;同期该国累计可再生能源装机预计将达到约9吉瓦。
GlobalData电力分析师Mohammed Ziauddin表示,在孟加拉国,太阳能预计仍将是可再生能源扩张的主要驱动力,这得益于其可扩展性以及对当地条件的适应性。不过,整体可再生能源增长预计仍将较为渐进,反映出结构性和系统层面的限制。
孟加拉国太阳能产业最初建立在离网基础之上,核心是Solar Home System项目。该项目由Infrastructure Development Co. Ltd.实施,通过小额信贷网络和私营部门参与,推动农村地区电气化。如今,增长正越来越多地由工商业细分市场的屋顶光伏推动,并受到净计量机制支持;与此同时,公用事业级项目也在税收假期、进口关税豁免以及太阳能设备增值税减免等政策支持下持续推进。
Ziauddin表示,高人口密度和土地资源有限,正推动部署模式创新,包括漂浮式光伏、太阳能灌溉系统,以及通过公私合作框架获取政府-owned土地的模式。
火电预计仍将占主导地位。燃气发电装机预计将从2025年的约15.3吉瓦增至2035年的约20.1吉瓦,而煤电装机预计将达到约7.7吉瓦。Rooppur核电站预计到2035年将贡献约2.2吉瓦核电装机。
近几个月来,孟加拉国一直在加快太阳能采购。该国电力公司于2026年1月签署了总规模523兆瓦的太阳能购电协议,并于2026年4月启动了77.6兆瓦光伏招标。另一个于2025年3月启动、总规模2.65吉瓦的太阳能招标,则是迄今单轮规模最大的采购。
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